Turuk Oil and Gas

Global gas outlook to 2050

The major driver of future energy trends will be population increase. Surprisingly, the majority of growth would come from nations and regions with underdeveloped energy infrastructure and access, implying that gas will have a large chance.

Rapid urbanization is also a significant subject, particularly in emerging countries, and the increasing urban population is anticipated to account for all extra population increase. This indicates to increased consumption of power and demand for the fuels that create it. Although renewables will be significant, gas may also play an important role as a flexible and reasonably clean fuel for power generation.

China has recovered considerably faster than any other country from COVID-19 and will exhibit positive economic growth in 2020, but at a much lower rate than previously predicted. Meanwhile, the virus's unchecked spread has resulted in a historic 4.3 percent drop in GDP in the United States.

The forecast remains the flagship publication of the association of 19 member countries, which together represent 70% of the world’s proven gas reserves, 44% of its marketed production, 52% of pipeline, and 51% of LNG exports in the world.

The COVID-19-induced health, humanitarian, and economic problems, as well as previously (pre-pandemic) anticipated trade frictions, have a significant influence on the medium- and long-term economic prospects.

Global real GDP in 2050 is anticipated to be 7% lower than it was before COVID-19. Governments all around the world will continue to have a growing role in resolving the aforementioned challenges. They will take a broad, efficient, and coordinated approach to addressing the issues confronting the most disadvantaged socioeconomic groups and communities, sectors, and businesses.

On the plus side, incremental population increase, mostly driven by Africa and emerging Asia, together with robust urbanisation and labour productivity trends, will continue to be the fundamental engines driving both sustainable economic development and primary energy consumption.

COVID19 has expedited changes in consumer and supplier behaviour patterns, creating opportunities for more innovative, cost-effective businesses, hastening the adoption of digital technology, developing and expanding new sectors, and has changed the workforce make-up. Businesses are attempting to improve supply chain resilience as a result of prior supply network disruptions.

Considering revised GDP growth expectations, 2020 demand contraction, and COVID-19 pandemic patterns, as well as recent energy policy developments, global primary energy demand grows by 24 percent over the Outlook period, returning to 2019 levels by late 2023, but remains 2.5 percent lower than our pre-pandemic forecast by 2050.

Natural gas, together with renewables, will gain in importance and be the major contributors to incremental growth in global energy demand, accounting for more than 90% of the additional 3,520 Mtoe through 2050.

Natural gas, for its part, will play the most prominent role in constructing a more sustainable energy system. Natural gas will replace coal in 2025 and become the leading worldwide main energy source by 2047, owing to a combination of economic and demographic factors, environmental concerns, increased supply availability, and favourable governmental support in many nations.

Natural gas consumption will increase by 50%, reaching 5,920 bcm in 2050, with growth concentrated in the Asia Pacific, North American, and Middle Eastern regions, which will account for more than 75% of extra gas volumes through 2050. Given its great potential, the Asia Pacific area will become the largest gas user, more than tripling current consumption to 1,660 bcm by 2050.

The rate of rise in gas demand in land and maritime transportation will be especially rapid. Gas consumption in these categories will reach 360 bcm in 2050, rising at a 5.3 percent annual rate due to tougher environmental restrictions and objectives to reduce air pollution.

As total gas exports are anticipated to rise, the gas market will become more interconnected and less regionalized. Traded LNG will account for about 48 percent of all traded gas in 2030, increasing to 56 percent in 2050.With the COVID-19 epidemic and uncertainty surrounding future energy costs and demand, it is not unexpected that existing and upcoming investment projects are slowing. As a result, foreign direct investment inflows are anticipated to remain below pre-pandemic levels until 2022.

Total gas investment (including upstream and midstream sectors) will total USD10 trillion between 2020 and 2050. The majority of this amount is for upstream activities; trade infrastructure (such as liquefaction facilities, pipeline strings, and regasification plants) will require an additional USD708 billion in investment, with liquefaction projects accounting for more than half of this total.